We are now in 2020, a fifth of the way into the 21st century. There can now be no doubt that this century will be an Asian Century. As the British historian Angus Maddison has documented, the two largest economies from 1 AD to 1820 were China and India. The past 200 years of Western domination, by Europe and the US, were clearly an aberration. All aberrations come to a natural end.

To be fair, to give credit where credit is due, Asia should thank the West for stimulating its resurgence. The key catalysts for Asia’s growth are Western in origin: mastery of modern science and technology; free market economics; governments accountable to people (and not vice versa); respect for science and reasoning in formulating key public policies; mass education; to name just a few. As a result of these Western gifts, three of the largest economies in the world (in Purchasing Power Parity terms) are Asian; namely China, the US, India and Japan. More Asian economies will join the top ten list.

Yet, as we know well in life, nothing is inevitable. Asian societies could well stumble again. Many threats remain or could emerge suddenly, like Covid-19 in 2020. However, the main threat is clear: the one big factor that could drag Asia down is the explosion of major wars. Fortunately, most of Asia has been in peace in the past four decades, since the massive Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979. The guns have been mostly silent. However, anyone who thinks that Asia has now irreversibly entered a new era of peace should have his head examined. Sadly, while wars do remain unlikely in Asia, they remain possible. We cannot rule out wars between India and Pakistan, China and Japan, North and South Korea and even between Cambodia and Thailand.

The tragedy here is that we cannot rule them out even though recent events have shown that wars are stupid and enormously destructive, even to the greatest superpowers. Why did the mighty Soviet Union collapse and disappear without a trace? Many reasons! One key reason was the destructive war in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, draining resources, spirits and generating international isolation. By contrast, the US seemed absolutely triumphant when the Cold War ended. Thirty years later, the US has emerged as the only major developed country where the average income of the bottom fifty percent went down over a thirty year period. In the same period, the US also plunged into the Iraq War, which Kofi Annan called illegal. The post-9/11 wars are estimated to have cost the US $5 trillion. If this $5 trillion had been distributed among the bottom fifty percent of the US population, each citizen would have received a cheque of close to US$ 33,000. All this shows the great wisdom in the remarks of President Dwight Eisenhower when he said, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron.”

Asia can and should learn lessons from such negative examples. It should also learn from positive examples. The region that sets the gold standard for peace today is the European Union (EU). Within Asia, in recent decades, there have been zero wars. The EU has achieved something higher: zero prospect of war. Even though countries like UK, France, Germany and Spain have fought many wars with each other, the prospect of war among them today is zero! How did the EU achieve this gold standard? The most common answer is that Europe had to fight two enormously destructive wars, World War I and II, before it could achieve peace.  Yet in World War II, the country that lost most lives was Russia. It lost 20 million lives. Yet, war remains possible, say, between Russia and Germany.

The key point here is that there are no easy answers to the simple question of how peace comes about. Like any other complex phenomenon, peace is the result of many factors. Some are clear and visible, like the great economic interdependence that has developed among the EU member states. Yet, this economic interdependence rests on a more fundamental pillar: the theory of comparative advantage, espoused by David Ricardo. One big factor contributing to peace in our times is that most of the 193 countries in the world believe in this theory. Yet, despite the enormous reductions in global poverty as a result of international trade, major trade wars have broken out.

In short, if our goal is to maintain a peaceful Asia, in a relatively peaceful world, it will not be an easy task. We will have to look at all the factors that contribute to peace: political and economic, military and cultural, tangible and intangible, physical and psychological. This is the goal of the Asian Peace Programme: to slowly and progressively throw light on the factors that will work towards generating an enduring peace in Asia. Fortunately, we are housed in the Asia Research Institute, a centre of excellence of multi-disciplinary research on Asia.

We welcome contributions to this massive exercise from scholars and practitioners, from lay people to eminent individuals. Each one of us can play a part. For those who believe that peace in Asia is critical, we would also welcome financial contributions. Those who wish to do so can do so here. Any reader of this essay can also make an important contribution by sharing this message, as well as the articles that will soon appear on this page, with all their friends, in Asia or beyond. If Asia can remain at peace, not only Asians will benefit. The whole world will benefit from a peaceful Asian century.

Kishore Mahbubani