APP: Keeping Asia at Peace

The Asian Peace Programme (APP) was launched in July 2020. At that time, peace in Asia faced many potentially destabilising challenges. Just a month prior, in June 2020, Chinese and Indian troops had just had a military clash – their bloodiest in 45 years – along their restive Himalayan border. A year prior, in August 2019, India abrogated Kashmir’s special status, as a result of which the India-Pakistan relations plunged to a new low. The South China Sea remained restive as China and claimant states in Southeast Asia expressed strong, public disagreements. And, as I predicted in my book, Has China Won? (also published in 2020), the US-China contest accelerated significantly. Clearly, there was a need for a credible peace initiative that was Asia-focused, Asia-centred and Asia-led. It was through this need that the APP was born.

The APP publishes monthly policy essays which put forth novel and incisive ideas for peace in various conflict zones (and potential conflict zones) in Asia. These essays are written for APP by global scholars, policymakers and experts, and we pay particular attention to spotlighting young Asian voices as well as eminent names. We also publish long-form academic policy briefs and produce the podcast Asian Peace Talks. In July 2025, the month of our five-year anniversary, we published Can Asians Think of Peace?, an open access edited collection of our essays. You can read it here, completely for free: https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-96-5666-0. The APP is fortunately housed in the Asia Research Institute (ARI), a centre of excellence of multi-disciplinary research on Asia and a part of the National University of Singapore (NUS).

In my original introduction to the APP in July 2020, I said, “There can now be no doubt that this century will be an Asian Century. As the British historian Angus Maddison has documented, the two largest economies from 1 AD to 1820 were China and India. The past 200 years of Western domination, by Europe and the US, were clearly an aberration. All aberrations come to a natural end.” The recent resurgence of Asian economies confirms the arrival of the Asian century. China is now the second largest economy in the world. India is today the fourth largest – soon to be the third largest. By 2030, ASEAN as a whole will become the fourth largest economy. By 2040, Goldman Sachs predicts that China will have overtaken the United States to become the largest economy in the world. By then, the centre of gravity of the world would have decisively shifted to Asia.

Covid demonstrated this shift to Asia in other avenues: healthcare, science, manufacturing and supply chains, and an Asia-led Global South solidarity. In 2021, as most Western countries focussed on hoarding vaccines for their own people, it was China, followed by India, that took the lead in supplying vaccines to much of the Global South: Asia, Africa, the Middle East, the Caribbean countries. In short, the Asian century is gaining strength and momentum.

Yet, as we know well in life, nothing is inevitable. The main threat is clear: the one big factor that could drag Asia down is the explosion of major wars. Fortunately, most of Asia has been at peace in the past four decades, since the massive Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979. The guns of war have been mostly silent. However, anyone who thinks that Asia has now irreversibly entered a new era of peace should have his head examined. While wars do remain unlikely in Asia, they remain possible. We cannot rule out wars between India and Pakistan, China and Japan, North and South Korea and even between Cambodia and Thailand. Sadly, the use of F16 fighter jets in the Thai-Cambodian military clashes in July 2025 clearly reconfirmed that we cannot take peace for granted, despite the long record of peace between ASEAN member states. 

We all know that wars are stupid and enormously destructive, even to the greatest superpowers. Why did the mighty Soviet Union collapse and disappear without a trace? One key reason was the destructive war in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, which drained resources and spirits and brought about international isolation. By contrast, the US seemed absolutely triumphant when the Cold War ended. Yet, today the American people are worse off in many ways. The US has emerged as the only major developed country in which the average income of the bottom fifty percent went down over a thirty-year period. In the same period, the US also plunged into the Iraq War, which Kofi Annan called illegal. The post-9/11 wars are estimated to have cost the US$5 trillion. If this $5 trillion had been distributed among the bottom fifty percent of the US population, each citizen would have received a cheque of close to US$33,000. All this shows the great wisdom in the remarks of President Dwight Eisenhower when he said, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron.”

In my original introduction in July 2020, I also said that even though the EU has achieved “zero prospect of war,” among its member countries, “war remains possible, say, between Russia and Germany.” That statement has, sadly, proven prescient. Even though Russia and Germany have not gone to war, Europe is once again engaged in a proxy war with Russia, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This is a war which has claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. While we must condemn Russia’s illegal invasion, it is also true that this war could well have been avoided had Europe shown more geopolitical wisdom. The legendary George Kennan said, back in 1998, when asked about the impact of the expansion of NATO into former areas of the Warsaw Pact, “I think it is the beginning of a new cold war. I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the founding fathers of this country turn over in their graves.” The Ukraine conflict provides key lessons to all of us in Asia: we must never forsake geopolitical wisdom for geopolitical naivete. And we must seek out and pay attention to wise voices of caution, like George Kennan’s, to ensure that we don’t inadvertently step off the path of peace.

There are no easy answers to the simple question of how peace comes about. Like any other complex phenomenon, peace is the result of many factors. Some are clear and visible, like the great economic interdependence that has developed among the EU member states. This economic interdependence rests on a more fundamental pillar: the theory of comparative advantage, espoused by David Ricardo. One big factor contributing to peace in our times is that most of the 193 countries in the world believe in this theory. Yet, despite the enormous reductions in global poverty as a result of international trade, major trade wars have broken out, especially in the second term of Trump’s presidency.

In short, maintaining a peaceful Asia in a relatively peaceful world will not be an easy task. We will have to look at all the factors that contribute to peace: political and economic, military and cultural, tangible and intangible, physical and psychological. This is the goal of the APP: to slowly and progressively throw light on what we need to do to build an enduring peace in Asia.

This goal remains ever more urgent today. The Ukraine conflict and the Gaza war rage on. In May 2025, India and Pakistan had a brief but highly consequential military confrontation. In June 2025, Israel had a brief military confrontation with Iran, during which the United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. And under the Trump administration, the US-China contest continues to heighten. Peace in Asia, therefore, can never be taken for granted.

Each one of us, from scholars and practitioners, from lay people to eminent individuals, can play a part in this ongoing project of peace. From those with the means to provide support, we welcome financial contributions. Those who wish to do so can do so here. In addition, any reader of this introductory essay can also make an important contribution by sharing this message, as well as the articles that appear on this page, with their friends in Asia or beyond. If Asia can remain at peace, Asians will not be the only ones who benefit. The whole world will benefit from a peaceful Asian century.

Kishore Mahbubani
July 2025

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APP: An Introduction

We are now in 2020, a fifth of the way into the 21st century. There can now be no doubt that this century will be an Asian Century. As the British historian Angus Maddison has documented, the two largest economies from 1 AD to 1820 were China and India. The past 200 years of Western domination, by Europe and the US, were clearly an aberration. All aberrations come to a natural end.

To be fair, to give credit where credit is due, Asia should thank the West for stimulating its resurgence. The key catalysts for Asia’s growth are Western in origin: mastery of modern science and technology; free market economics; governments accountable to people (and not vice versa); respect for science and reasoning in formulating key public policies; mass education; to name just a few. As a result of these Western gifts, three of the largest economies in the world (in Purchasing Power Parity terms) are Asian; namely China, the US, India and Japan. More Asian economies will join the top ten list.

Yet, as we know well in life, nothing is inevitable. Asian societies could well stumble again. Many threats remain or could emerge suddenly, like Covid-19 in 2020. However, the main threat is clear: the one big factor that could drag Asia down is the explosion of major wars. Fortunately, most of Asia has been in peace in the past four decades, since the massive Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979. The guns have been mostly silent. However, anyone who thinks that Asia has now irreversibly entered a new era of peace should have his head examined. Sadly, while wars do remain unlikely in Asia, they remain possible. We cannot rule out wars between India and Pakistan, China and Japan, North and South Korea and even between Cambodia and Thailand.

The tragedy here is that we cannot rule them out even though recent events have shown that wars are stupid and enormously destructive, even to the greatest superpowers. Why did the mighty Soviet Union collapse and disappear without a trace? Many reasons! One key reason was the destructive war in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989, draining resources, spirits and generating international isolation. By contrast, the US seemed absolutely triumphant when the Cold War ended. Thirty years later, the US has emerged as the only major developed country where the average income of the bottom fifty percent went down over a thirty year period. In the same period, the US also plunged into the Iraq War, which Kofi Annan called illegal. The post-9/11 wars are estimated to have cost the US $5 trillion. If this $5 trillion had been distributed among the bottom fifty percent of the US population, each citizen would have received a cheque of close to US$ 33,000. All this shows the great wisdom in the remarks of President Dwight Eisenhower when he said, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron.”

Asia can and should learn lessons from such negative examples. It should also learn from positive examples. The region that sets the gold standard for peace today is the European Union (EU). Within Asia, in recent decades, there have been zero wars. The EU has achieved something higher: zero prospect of war. Even though countries like UK, France, Germany and Spain have fought many wars with each other, the prospect of war among them today is zero! How did the EU achieve this gold standard? The most common answer is that Europe had to fight two enormously destructive wars, World War I and II, before it could achieve peace.  Yet in World War II, the country that lost most lives was Russia. It lost 20 million lives. Yet, war remains possible, say, between Russia and Germany.

The key point here is that there are no easy answers to the simple question of how peace comes about. Like any other complex phenomenon, peace is the result of many factors. Some are clear and visible, like the great economic interdependence that has developed among the EU member states. Yet, this economic interdependence rests on a more fundamental pillar: the theory of comparative advantage, espoused by David Ricardo. One big factor contributing to peace in our times is that most of the 193 countries in the world believe in this theory. Yet, despite the enormous reductions in global poverty as a result of international trade, major trade wars have broken out.

In short, if our goal is to maintain a peaceful Asia, in a relatively peaceful world, it will not be an easy task. We will have to look at all the factors that contribute to peace: political and economic, military and cultural, tangible and intangible, physical and psychological. This is the goal of the Asian Peace Programme: to slowly and progressively throw light on the factors that will work towards generating an enduring peace in Asia. Fortunately, we are housed in the Asia Research Institute, a centre of excellence of multi-disciplinary research on Asia.

We welcome contributions to this massive exercise from scholars and practitioners, from lay people to eminent individuals. Each one of us can play a part. For those who believe that peace in Asia is critical, we would also welcome financial contributions. Those who wish to do so can do so here. Any reader of this essay can also make an important contribution by sharing this message, as well as the articles that will soon appear on this page, with all their friends, in Asia or beyond. If Asia can remain at peace, not only Asians will benefit. The whole world will benefit from a peaceful Asian century.

Kishore Mahbubani
July 2020