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This roundtable is co-organised by the Asia Research Institute, NUS and the Singapore Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SICC)

CHAIRPERSON

Prof Prasenjit Duara, Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore

SPEAKERS

Ambassador K. Kesavapany, Ambassador to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

Dr Ronojoy Sen, Asia Research Institute and Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore

Assoc Prof Rahul Mukherji, South Asian Studies Programme, National University of Singapore

Mr Ashish Rajadhyaksha, Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore

SUMMARY

The outcome of the Indian General Elections of 2014 promises potential transformations in the polity and economy of historical magnitude. Among the most significant novel factors are the rise of the Narendra Modi, the highly controversial and powerful leader of the BJP, the AAP, a party focused principally on transparency and clean government, and not least, an electorate in which almost 40% percent of the 814 million voters are below the age of 35 and highly aspirational. At the same time, the configuration of power in the political system could also constrain or exercise a moderating influence upon the new government. The roundtable, consisting of experts on Indian politics and foreign policy will present their views of the outcome.

ABSTRACTS

The Foreign Policy Perspective in the aftermath of the Indian General Election
by Ambassador K. Kesavapany, Ambassador to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

In the 2 1/2 months of election campaigning,discussion on foreign policy issues was noticeable by its absence. Now, in the aftermath of one of the most critical of elections in India’s sixty year old history as an independent country,the Government of the day has to come to grips with a rapidly-changing geo-political and economic environment. Veteran diplomat and Distinguished Affiliate Fellow,ARI will examine the challenges that lie ahead for the Indian Govt and people.

Decoding the Result: An Analysis of India’s 2014 Elections
by Dr Ronojoy Sen, Asia Research Institute and Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore

The results of the Indian general elections, the largest democratic exercise in the world, were announced on May 16. My presentation explains the outcome of one of the most bitterly-contested elections in India by examining three issues. First, I look at what made the 2014 elections different from earlier elections. Second, I analyze the performance of the two national parties – the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. Third, I examine how the major regional parties fared and post-election what the political situation might look like in some of India’s bigger states.

Elections, Growth and Well Being in India
by Assoc Prof Rahul Mukherji, South Asian Studies Programme, National University of Singapore

The Indian economy continued to grow rapidly till 2011/12 and the recent period has witnessed welfare programs and significant poverty reduction by historical standards. The recent period of low growth by Indian standards (because it is still second only to China among the BRICS) has consequences for investments and poverty alleviation. This presentation will reflect on the impact of the new ruling dispensation on investments, growth and poverty alleviation in India.

The Real Questions?
by Mr Ashish Rajadhyaksha, Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore

This abstract is being written before the election results are out. At this moment numerous possibilities are being envisaged, each of which could generate fundamentally different scenarios. Since our Roundtable will take place long after the results, the presentation I am right now preparing will focus less on just what the new governing dispensation, whatever it is, can or cannot do, and more on a few key issues that will almost certainly remain of significance regardless of who actually comes to power.

The three issues are all symptomatic. They are: (1) Why did the Congress implode? I shall suggest that the largely individuated explanations presently on offer, involving individual weaknesses, incapacities or ambitions, do not begin to provide proper political accounts for why UPA-II so fundamentally lost its way. It is more likely, I will suggest, that hyper-centralized national coalitions are becoming increasingly untenable in India. (2) Why did Parliament become dysfunctional? This is not because of ideological differences. Indeed, in India, barring a very few issues on which parties are indeed in fundamental ideological opposition, most differences cannot be captured in ideological terms. Then what constitutes the reason for ‘difference’ between parties? Whatever the reason, it is evident that political formations will be incapable of working together in the near future, and the absence of brute majorities will only see this dysfunctionality growing. (3) My third point arises from the first two. Are the key decisions affecting India being taken any more in Delhi at all? Or are they being taken in Bangalore, Bhuvaneshwar, Chennai, Agartala and Thiruvananthapuram? The perceived need for a hyper-centralized, strong, leadership as the single-point solution for all our problems appears to be contrary to a much greater trend towards regionalism. The success stories of several regional governments, and especially of several smaller Indian states, may well have been the true story of the past decade. Given that such stories provide their own unique ‘models’ most of which appear untranslatable, the specific nature of what ‘inclusive’ growth precisely includes may yet be an unfolding story.

In the end, the ambitions of the Modi government may well be the last hurrah of a hyper-centralized imagination for India. And the questions that have been raised about his ability to take the much-vaunted (and in itself much-challenged) ‘Gujarat model’ to all-India applicability may in the end well be, if more precisely asked, the real questions for India. (Quick concluding summary for the ramifications then: he may come to power, but he can’t do it).

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

K Kesavapany was the Director of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore from October 2002 until 28 February 2012. Prior to this, he was Singapore’s High Commissioner to Malaysia from 1997 to 2002. He also served as Singapore’s Permanent Representative to the UN in Geneva and concurrently accredited as Ambassador to Italy (1991-1997) and Turkey. Presently, Mr Kesavapany is a Governor on the Board of the Singapore International Foundation and President of the Singapore Indian Association (SIA). He is also currently a Distinguished Affliated Fellow with the Asia Research Institute at the National University of Singapore. Mr Kesavapany graduated from the University of Malaya with a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) degree and obtained a Master of Arts (Area Studies) degree from the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London. Mr Kesavapany is Singapore’s Non-Resident Ambassador to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

Ronojoy Sen is Senior Research Fellow at ISAS and ARI. He has worked for over a decade in leading Indian newspapers. He was last with The Times of India, New Delhi, where he was a Senior Assistant Editor on the editorial page. Dr Sen holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of Chicago and a BA in History from Presidency College, Calcutta. He has been a Visiting Fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy, Washington, D.C. and the East-West Center Washington, and Fellow of the International Olympic Museum, Lausanne, Switzerland. Dr Sen is the author of ‘Articles of Faith: Religion, Secularism, and the Indian Supreme Court’ (Oxford University Press, 2010; paperback 2012). He is the co-editor of ‘More than Maoism: Politics, Policies and Insurgencies in South Asia’ and ‘Being Muslim in South Asia: Diversity and Daily Life’. He has contributed to edited volumes and has published in several leading journals. He also writes regularly for newspapers.

Rahul Mukherji is Associate Professor in the South Asian Studies Programme at NUS. He has edited India’s Economic Transition (Oxford University Press, 2007), co-authored India Since 1980 (Cambridge University Press, 2011) with Sumit Ganguly, and most recently published Political Economy of Reforms in India (Oxford University Press, 2014).

Ashish Rajadhyaksha is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for the Study of Culture & Society, Bangalore, India. He has written and published widely on the area of Indian cinema, India’s cultural policy, and on the visual arts. Mr Rajadhyaksha is the co-editor of the Encyclopaedia of Indian Cinema (published in 1999 and 2001 by the British Film Institute). His books include The Last Cultural Mile: An Inquiry into Technology and Governance in India (2011) and Indian Cinema in the Time of Celluloid: From Bollywood to the Emergency (2009). He has curated a number of film and art events, e.g. You Don’t Belong (a film package that toured several cities in China in 2011, commissioned by West heavens, Hong Kong), and Bombay/Mumbai 1991-2001 (for the exhibition Century City: Art & Culture in the Modern Metropolis, Tate Modern, London, 2002, with Geeta Kapur).

REGISTRATION

Admission is free. We would greatly appreciate if you could register at http://www.sicci.com/en/events/Modi or RSVP with Mr Jonathan Lee at jonathan.lee@nus.edu.sg.