The EU and ASEAN: Partners to Manage Great Power Rivalry?

By Tan York Chor
Tan York Chor was formerly Singapore’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations and Other International Organisations in Geneva and to the IAEA in Vienna, and Singapore’s Ambassador to France and Portugal.

Republished in The Straits Times: https://www.straitstimes.com/opinion/eu-and-asean-partners-to-manage-great-power-rivalry

JULY, 25, 2022

Can the European Union (EU) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) work together to maintain the 1945 rules-based, multilateral order, that was shaped and built largely by the West? With the rise of great power rivalry between the US and China, the future of this order, together with its core institutions such as the United Nations (UN), the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and international law, will be put under severe strain. The forces of competition and rivalry may well displace the forces of cooperation.

The centrifugal forces of the US-China rivalry risk turning the two most successful regional organisations of the 21^st century, the EU and ASEAN, into the spokes of two competing global hubs led by the US and China. Such forces may even tear apart both regional groupings. Hence, both have a common interest in preserving the global multilateral structure. This deep common interest calls for greater cooperation between the EU and ASEAN.

The endangered multilateral order

The current rules-based multilateral order emerged out of the two highly destructive world wars in the first half of the twentieth century. With a strong desire to reinstate peace in global affairs, even before World War Two ended, representatives of 50 countries drafted and signed the Charter for the UN, forming the framework of the global multilateral rules-based order that exists till today. This order has made significant contributions towards peace. Resourceful UN Secretaries-General, like U Thant, Perez de Cuellar and Kofi Annan, played a critical role in mediating the end of several wars and conflicts. For a few years after the end of the Cold War, in the 1990s, the UN Security Council Permanent Five members converged and seemed to fulfil their primary responsibility of maintaining international peace and security.  They endorsed the ousting of Saddam Hussein’s Iraq from Kuwait in 1990, and forged the peace accord to end the Cambodian conflict in 1991. The 1992 Rio Convention and the Uruguay Round created a framework for global cooperation in the fields of the environment and international trade, two areas where the interests of humanity converge.

Sadly, this cooperative spirit has not endured. Instead, we are now back to a divided world, reminding us of the days when the UN was hobbled and overshadowed by the great power rivalry of the Cold War. In trade and technology, there have been ups and downs too. Together with advances in technology and logistics, the rules-based international framework boosted global connectivity and productivity, creating jobs to lift hundreds of millions out of poverty. The world enjoyed great progress and prosperity in the last few decades of the 20^th century. But as key sectors and industries became obsolete or unproductive, governments that failed to cushion the impacts of free trade and globalisation on workers instead blamed ‘unfair trade’, and fuelled nationalist sentiments.

As a result, this has led to a general disillusionment with globalisation in many parts of the world, including the US. In particular, the WTO has floundered, its Appellate Body (AB) for dispute settlement hamstrung due to the blocking of new appointments, primarily by the US. Moreover, the US-China contest threatens to rip apart supply chains and technology standards. If decoupling results from the US-China contest, the interdependence constraining the two powers from rash actions may unravel. This would lead to sharper geopolitical risks, higher inefficiencies, and rising business costs.

Bringing Back Enlightened Collaboration

To protect our endangered multilateral order, the EU and ASEAN have a critical role to play in reviving the prospects of peace and cooperation in international affairs. If the two great powers are too fixated on their geopolitical contest to maintain the rules-based multilateral order, the EU and ASEAN should rise to the occasion and work together to steer the ship and work jointly to manage global affairs. It would be a worthy cause to build on from their ASEAN-EU strategic partnership launched in December 2020. Indeed, attesting to the importance of this strategic partnership, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell called on ASEAN and the EU to “pull together” to “safeguard our respective ‘strategic autonomy”. To do so, they can take a few key steps.

First, they can encourage the Great Powers to compete, not based on short-term, zero-sum calculations or their power, but based on the example on how well they manage their domestic challenges  and contribute to global good.

Second, they should persuade the Great Powers to return to the centrality of the UN, international law and the rules-based multilateral framework. This would help to rekindle a spirit of global cooperation based on dialogue, diplomacy, statesmanship, and win-win partnership.  ASEAN and EU could then be pathfinders in resolving the WTO and AB impasses.

Third, they can help to build communication channels between the US and China to avoid miscalculations and dispel misunderstandings which increase the levels of mistrust. This will help to foster a modus vivendi between US and China. Being closer to China, ASEAN could act as half the bridge to engage China behind-the-scenes through quiet diplomacy. Accordingly, the EU could do the same with the US.

Fourth, they must continue to make use of science and technology to solve global challenges and achieve socio-economic progress in areas such as health, education and sustainable development. As pandemics, nuclear proliferation and global warming pose existential risks to everyone, ASEAN and EU could persuade the Great Powers to enhance cooperation in these areas.

As Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong noted in an interview with Nikkei on 23 May 2022, “frameworks… like the UN as well as the WTO, IMF, World Bank… enable all countries to work together even if we have differences, disagreements and even conflicts with one another.  If you remove … or… undermine that, then you are in the law of the jungle (where) it's not only the weak who will suffer.  Even the strong will have a rough time… fighting one another and dissipating valuable energies.” If ASEAN and the EU can join voices and act jointly as a bridge to systematically address global problems, they would help revive a more cooperative relationship among the Great Powers, and strengthen the wider rules-based framework.  Such an endeavour for a better world for future generations will take time to bear fruit. Nonetheless, the ASEAN-EU strategic partnership could start taking small steps towards strengthening global multilateral frameworks and institutions.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.