Trump 2:0: Getting US-China ties right despite the odds

Since winning the presidential election, Donald Trump has struck a conciliatory tone towards China. He has said repeatedly that Xi Jinping is a good friend and has invited Xi to his inauguration on Jan 20. He has also said that together, China and the United States can solve all of the world’s problems. 

However, most observers feel pessimistic about US-China relations in the Trump 2.0 era given his unpredictability and transactional style. Trump’s recent friendly gesture towards Mr Xi is reminiscent of the honeymoon they enjoyed in Trump’s first term (2017-2021). In April 2017, President Trump and first lady Melania hosted President Xi and Madame Peng Liyuan at Mar-A-Lago, and the two couples enjoyed tea at the Forbidden City in November 2017. Yet, the honeymoon ended when Trump launched the trade war with China in January 2018. 

 A replay of this scenario could happen again : A second Trump-Xi honeymoon followed by a relationship in freefall as the US president, urged by his trade and foreign policy aides who are recklessly anti-China, turn his campaign rhetoric into action, including imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods. 

Is there any hope for this relationship? 

The two powers could develop sound and realistic policies to manage their competition successfully if they so decide. It all boils down to a simple choice: cooperation or confrontation. 

After years of high tension, some soul-searching in both capitals is needed to improve the relationship. Indeed, many people in both countries and elsewhere have appealed to the two governments to resolve their differences diplomatically and avoid unnecessary conflicts.  

Trump’s nomination of China hawks to key foreign policy and trade positions in his second administration do not bode well for the US-China relationship. However, there will be competition from others who hold different views, and backchannel negotiations with China through close advisors and business intermediaries, such as Elon Musk and Stephen Schwarzman, could result in a more balanced relationship.   

A recent study by two researchers, from Princeton and Harvard, who interviewed dozens of foreign policy and national security specialists in Washington starting in 2023, suggests that there exists  diverse policy perspectives towards China despite the appearance otherwise.  Under professional pressure, many of these experts  voice hawkish views but in private they tend to be more moderate. 

In other words, the future of US-China relations is not preordained. To a great extent, the ball is in Trump’s court. If Trump micro-manages US-China relations and works with China, a showdown could be avoided. But if ideologues such as Marco Rubio and Peter Navarro are to be leading voices in charge of the China policy in a second Trump administration, one can expect severe storms ahead. 

What can both China and the United States do to build a stable relationship in the next four years? 

It helps that currently domestic affairs are expected to preoccupy both Trump and Xi. As Trump has repeatedly said, his priority is to deport illegal immigrants and get grocery prices down once he is back in the White House. Xi, on his part, has to grapple with a weak economy and persistent corruption within the party and the military. 

 To set the tone for improved bilateral ties, China could open its door wider to welcome American people and businesses. The Biden administration recently lowered the travel advisory for China from Level 3 (reconsider travel) to Level 2 (exercise increased caution). On its part, China applies a visa-free transit policy of 10 days to Americans. Beijing could go further by extending the visa-free period to 30 days for Americans, like what it currently offers to citizens of over 30 countries, including many in Europe, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. This would be consistent with China’s desire to expand people-to-people exchanges. China can also help generate more positive American public views of China, for example, by sending more giant pandas to American zoos. 

China could try to soften the US Congress’s anti-China stance using deft diplomacy. Beijing should work harder to cultivate relations with members of Congress and actively invite them and their aides to visit China and learn more about China. It can do a better job to convince members of Congress, especially those from agricultural states, that a cooperative relationship with China benefits their constituencies. 

In addition, Beijing should dial back on its muscle-flexing in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. In particular, its military activities around Taiwan invite blowback by further alienating the Taiwanese public and giving Washington easy pretexts to arm Taiwan with more advanced weapons. 

The United States, for its part, should view China’s development and challenges objectively, and politicians should stop the senseless game of competing with one another over who is tougher on China. Instead of knee-jerk reactions of blindly blaming China for every single problem, a more reasoned response and search for mutually beneficial outcomes are a better way forward. 

The US government, schools and parents should encourage more American youth to study in China. Appallingly, only about 800  Americans are studying in China now, compared with nearly 300,000 Chinese students in the US. If this trend continues, the American understanding of China will remain shallow and prejudiced, and the next generation of America’s “China experts” will be out of touch with reality in China. 

On the matter of US policy on Taiwan, Trump’s aversion to war aligns with Xi’s preference to resolve the Taiwan issue through peaceful rather than military means. However, some Trump administration officials and members of Congress may be tempted to play the Taiwan card against China. That would be unwise as Beijing views Taiwan as the core of its core national interests and a red line not to be crossed. Washington should take Beijing’s warnings very seriously. The Taiwan issue is tied up with the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy, brings back memories of China’s “century of humiliation,” and is one of the few issues that unite the Chinese of every stripe. If the United States is unwilling or unprepared to fight a war with China, no US politicians should poke Beijing in the eye with Taiwan as a stick. 

 
The US-China relationship operates on two premises -- great power competition will not disappear and neither side pursues a conflictual relationship. How Beijing and Washington manage this complex relationship is consequential, and not just to both parties. The rest of the world is anxiously watching as the next chapter unfolds. 

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.